Meet Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted the president (and the last 9)

By Mike Fishmore | May 10, 2024

Relies on science

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., has accurately forecasted the results of nine out of the last ten presidential elections since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984.

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Allan Lichtman relies on science. More precisely, he utilizes the principles of plate tectonics in the context of American history and politics. In 1981, Lichtman collaborated with an earthquake expert from Moscow to establish the criteria for his forecasts. He employs 13 historical factors, referred to as "keys," to assess presidential elections. 

Four are political

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Among these factors, four are political, seven are performance-based, and two focus on the candidate's personality. For the incumbent party to be defeated in the presidential race, they would need to fail in at least six of these key factors.