Weathering the Storm: 10 U.S. Cities Prepared for Extreme Climate
By Sophia Maddox | January 24, 2024
San Francisco, California
In a world where climate change is an ever-pressing concern, the question of where to weather the impending storm becomes increasingly crucial. Recently, Policygenius, armed with data from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau, embarked on a comprehensive analysis of the top 50 largest urban areas in the United States. Their mission? To assess these cities across various climate change indicators, offering us a glimpse into which urban havens are poised to thrive as temperatures soar and sea levels surge in the coming decades, and conversely, which may face more challenging times.
As we delve into this riveting exploration of climate resilience, we'll uncover cities that emerge as unlikely sanctuaries, where soaring temperatures are held at bay, flooding remains a manageable concern, and the air is fresher than one might expect. But even in these climate-ready cities, the specter of climate change looms, reminding us that no corner of the globe is truly impervious to its effects. So, join us on this journey as we navigate the climate landscapes of America's urban centers, discovering which cities stand as beacons of readiness.
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In the realm of climate resilience, San Francisco, California, emerges as a true outlier. Unlike the common perception of California, San Francisco defies expectations and stands as a beacon of readiness in the face of climate change.
Heat, a significant concern in many cities, isn't a major issue for San Francisco, with just three days of extreme heat predicted annually by 2050 and less than a full day of high heat and humidity. Sea-level rise is expected to have minimal impact on residential areas, despite the city's bayfront location, with a low percentage of properties in 100-year flood plains remaining unchanged. San Francisco enjoys immunity from several climate-related disasters, witnessing few hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires, particularly when compared to neighboring regions. Furthermore, despite the nearby wildfires affecting air quality, San Francisco boasts better air quality than the average among the cities on our list, with 86% of days in 2021 registering as "good." San Francisco not only excels in climate resilience but also shines in social factors, displaying a strong community resilience and vulnerability, positioning itself as the number one city for escaping the worst effects of climate change.
Denver, Colorado
Nestled amidst the breathtaking Rocky Mountains, Denver, Colorado, offers more than just mile-high views—it's also a city gearing up to face climate change head-on. While Denver residents can expect an average of 33 days of extreme heat by 2050, the city's lack of humidity is projected to remain unchanged. Despite a slight risk of flooding, Denver's overall increase in flood-prone properties is relatively low at just 0.1%.
However, this Rocky Mountain gem faces its own climate-related challenges, particularly in the realm of wildfires, where it scores similarly to Portland and Seattle. Unlike these cities, Denver falls below average for air quality, with just 43% of days measuring as "good" in 2021. Nevertheless, Denver is determined to adapt to the changing climate, with initiatives aimed at bolstering community resilience, ensuring that this city of high altitudes stands strong amidst the environmental shifts on the horizon.
Buffalo, NY
https://forgebuffalo.com/why-buffalo/
Buffalo, New York, dubbed a "climate refuge city," offers a compelling option for those seeking respite from climate extremes. While Miami braces for a staggering 114 days of scorching temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit per year by mid-century, Buffalo anticipates just eight extremely hot days annually. This distinction is crucial, considering that extreme heat currently claims hundreds of lives annually in the U.S. Buffalo also boasts a low hurricane risk, minimal wildfire vulnerability compared to the Western U.S., and the advantage of abundant freshwater from Lake Erie, mitigating potential summer droughts. Furthermore, its declining population over the decades has created space for growth, attracting newcomers, including climate migrants like the 3,000 individuals who relocated from Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria.
Buffalo actively reinforces its resilience through initiatives like porous pavement, rain-absorbing parks, increased solar power adoption, and energy-efficient retrofits for older homes. The city already relies on renewable energy, largely from hydropower at Niagara Falls. Efforts to expand affordable housing align with an influx of residents, some of whom are driven by climate-related factors. However, Buffalo remains exposed to climate change impacts, with even a few sweltering days posing risks in an unaccustomed city with limited air conditioning. Increased heavy rain and flooding are also anticipated challenges. Buffalo acknowledges its place within a global economy, interconnected with regions facing climate-related hazards, underscoring that no location is entirely immune to these pressing global challenges.
Minneapolis, MN
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In the heart of the Midwest, Minneapolis, Minnesota, stands as a model of climate resilience in the face of impending challenges. The city recognizes that its most significant threat is the increasing heat, with expectations of around 15 extremely hot days annually by 2050, a dramatic rise of nearly 13 days compared to the present. Alongside this temperature surge, Minneapolis anticipates a corresponding increase in humidity, with almost 19 sweltering and humid days per year, which is 14 more than the current count.
However, what sets Minneapolis apart is its proactive approach to climate readiness. Since 2013, the city has embarked on a journey to reduce energy consumption, achieve a remarkable 50% recycling rate for city waste, and create an extensive network of 30 miles of bicycle lanes, promoting sustainable and green transportation. These efforts are all aimed at achieving an impressive goal: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2025. In essence, Minneapolis stands resilient in the face of climate shifts, armed with strategic initiatives that promise a more sustainable future.
Raleigh, NC
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In the southeastern United States, Raleigh, North Carolina, emerges as a formidable climate change champion. As the capital of North Carolina and the state's second-largest city, Raleigh has scored an impressive 115 points out of a possible 136. Despite its modest elevation and a ranking of 44 out of 50 for clean energy infrastructure, Raleigh shines as the third most climate-ready and adaptable city in the country, surpassed only by Seattle and Minneapolis.
What truly sets Raleigh apart is its commitment to air quality, boasting a remarkable 217 days of "good" air quality, a stark contrast to Denver's mere 84 days of similar air quality. Raleigh's dedication to providing its residents with a sustainable and conducive environment is commendable. In the realm of climate resilience, Raleigh proves that it's more than just a capital; it's a beacon of readiness in the face of environmental change.
Salt Lake City, Utah
Salt Lake City, Utah, proudly stands among the top cities for climate resilience, demonstrating its ability to weather environmental challenges and secure a sustainable future.
While wildfires pose a risk, Salt Lake City experiences relatively few destructive natural disasters and flood risks compared to cities like Tampa and Miami.
Salt Lake City falls in the middle of the pack in terms of climate change readiness and adaptability, but it stands on fertile ground for improvements, especially in its clean energy ranking, currently at No. 26. As the city's renewable energy industry burgeons, the City Council has set ambitious goals to reduce carbon emissions by a commendable 80% by 2040, showcasing Salt Lake City's commitment to a sustainable and resilient future. In a state renowned for its stunning landscapes, Salt Lake City shines as a resilient urban hub, poised to thrive amidst the challenges of a changing climate.
Richmond, Virginia
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Richmond, Virginia, nestled in its historic charm, faces an evolving climate landscape with a mix of challenges and strengths. By 2050, residents can anticipate a full month of extreme heat, although it remains below the average among cities in this study. Richmond's primary threat, however, lies in the rising sea levels and hurricane risks. Three percent of Richmond homes are expected to be at risk for flooding in 2050, nearly double the average on this list, with the percentage of homes in 100-year flood zones projected to rise to 5.3%.
Amidst stormy skies, Richmond boasts relatively good air quality, with 87% of the measured days in 2021 registering as "good," surpassing the average of 63%. This is a silver lining for residents amidst the climate-related challenges. Richmond is actively addressing these issues, demonstrating resilience through initiatives aimed at improving air quality and preparedness for climate change, all while preserving its historic character and heritage.
Seattle, Washington
https://stateofwatourism.com/metro-puget-sound/
Seattle, Washington, aligns closely with San Francisco in its anticipation of minimal increases in extreme heat and humidity days. Projections indicate just four extreme heat days annually between 2040 and 2059, along with fewer than two days of high heat and humidity.
While flooding remains a primary concern for Seattle, the numbers are comparatively low for a city situated on the Puget Sound. Less than 10% of its properties are expected to fall within 100-year flood zones by 2050, representing a mere 0.5% increase from current flood zone properties. Even with sea-level rise expected to affect 0.35% of properties by 2050, this figure remains notably below the 1.35% average among cities in our study.
Surprisingly, Seattle maintains a low wildfire risk despite a statewide increase in wildfires from 2020 to 2021. Additionally, despite the emergence of a "smoke season" due to wildfires burning across the West, Seattle boasts air quality superior to the average among cities in our study, with an impressive 83% of days in 2021 registering as "good" air quality. Seattle's comprehensive climate resilience across various facets solidifies its position as a standout city in the face of environmental challenges.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
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Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, often referred to as the City of Bridges, is poised for a relatively moderate climate shift. By 2050, residents can expect just 10 days of extreme heat and a little over 13 days of high heat and humidity each year, both below the average compared to other cities in our study. However, the city's unique geography, nestled along three rivers, presents a heightened concern for flooding, with 12.4% of homes projected to be in 100-year flood plains by 2050. While this increase is only 0.4% from the present, it underscores the urgency for Pittsburgh to plan proactively for ongoing flood risk.
In contrast to some cities facing hurricane, wildfire, or tornado threats, Pittsburgh remains relatively safe from such natural disasters. However, it grapples with poor air quality, as only 47% of days in 2021 measured as "good" air quality, falling below the 63% city average. This air quality issue is attributed to high hydrogen sulfide rates stemming from nearby steel plants. Yet, there's hope for improvement, as U.S. Steel canceled plans for $1 billion in upgrades to its Mon Valley Works facilities in 2021, raising expectations for cleaner air in the coming years. Pittsburgh showcases remarkable resilience, largely owing to its robust community resilience initiatives, including the Pittsburgh Equity Indicators project initiated in 2017, which addresses air quality concerns, inequality, public health challenges, and other factors affecting its residents.
Columbus, Ohio
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Columbus, Ohio, secures a notable position on the list of climate-resilient cities, highlighting that even top-ranking cities like San Francisco and Seattle won't escape climate change entirely. The most significant challenge for Columbus residents is rising heat, with an expected average of 20 days of extreme heat by 2050, a stark rise of 18 more days compared to the present. Moreover, this heat won't be dry, as nearly 17 days of high heat and humidity annually are also projected by 2050, nearly 15 days more than today.
Thankfully, Columbus faces low risks of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires as time passes. Flooding is expected to remain relatively minor, with just a 0.5% increase in properties within 100-year flood zones compared to today, reaching 4.4% in 2050. Positioned in the middle for community resilience, Ohio's capital is well-prepared to adapt to its changing climate, thanks in large part to Mayor Ginther's bold climate action plan aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. In the face of evolving environmental challenges, Columbus exemplifies a city that's ready to embrace a sustainable and resilient future.
